India has been one of the best performers in the world economy in recent years, but rapidly rising inflation and the complexities of running the world’s biggest democracy are proving challenging. India’s economy has been one of the stars of global economics in recent years, growing 9.2% in 2007 and 9.6% in 2006. Growth had been supported by markets reforms, huge inflows of FDI, rising foreign exchange reserves, both an IT and real estate boom, and a flourishing capital market.
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Like most of the world, however, India is facing testing economic times in 2008. The Reserve Bank of India had set an inflation target of 4%, but by the middle of the year it was running at 11%, the highest level seen for a decade. The rising costs of oil, food and the resources needed for India’s construction boom are all playing a part. India has to compete ever harder in the energy market place in particular and has not been as adept at securing new fossil fuel sources as the Chinese. The Indian Government is looking at alternatives, and has signed a wide-ranging nuclear treaty with the US, in part to gain access to nuclear power plant technology that can reduce its oil thirst. This has proved contentious though, leading to leftist members of the ruling coalition pulling out of the government. As part of the fight against inflation a tighter monetary policy is expected, but this will help slow the growth of the Indian economy still further, as domestic demand will be dampened. External demand is also slowing, further adding to the downside risks. The Indian stock market has fallen more than 40% in six months from its January 2008 high. $6b of foreign funds have flowed out of the country in that period, reacting both to slowing economic growth and perceptions that the market was over-valued. It is not all doom and gloom, however. A growing number of investors feel that the market may now be undervalued and are seeing this as a buying opportunity. If their optimism about the long term health of the Indian economy is correct, then this will be a needed correction rather than a downtrend. The Indian government certainly hopes that is the case. It views investment in the creaking infrastructure of the country as being a key requirement, and has ear-marked 23.8 trillion rupees, approximately $559 billion, for infrastructure upgrades during the 11th five year plan. It expects to fund 70% of project costs, with the other 30% being supplied by the private sector. Ports, airports, roads and railways are all seen as vital for the Indian Economy and have been targeted for investment
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Like most of the world, however, India is facing testing economic times in 2008. The Reserve Bank of India had set an inflation target of 4%, but by the middle of the year it was running at 11%, the highest level seen for a decade. The rising costs of oil, food and the resources needed for India’s construction boom are all playing a part. India has to compete ever harder in the energy market place in particular and has not been as adept at securing new fossil fuel sources as the Chinese. The Indian Government is looking at alternatives, and has signed a wide-ranging nuclear treaty with the US, in part to gain access to nuclear power plant technology that can reduce its oil thirst. This has proved contentious though, leading to leftist members of the ruling coalition pulling out of the government. As part of the fight against inflation a tighter monetary policy is expected, but this will help slow the growth of the Indian economy still further, as domestic demand will be dampened. External demand is also slowing, further adding to the downside risks. The Indian stock market has fallen more than 40% in six months from its January 2008 high. $6b of foreign funds have flowed out of the country in that period, reacting both to slowing economic growth and perceptions that the market was over-valued. It is not all doom and gloom, however. A growing number of investors feel that the market may now be undervalued and are seeing this as a buying opportunity. If their optimism about the long term health of the Indian economy is correct, then this will be a needed correction rather than a downtrend. The Indian government certainly hopes that is the case. It views investment in the creaking infrastructure of the country as being a key requirement, and has ear-marked 23.8 trillion rupees, approximately $559 billion, for infrastructure upgrades during the 11th five year plan. It expects to fund 70% of project costs, with the other 30% being supplied by the private sector. Ports, airports, roads and railways are all seen as vital for the Indian Economy and have been targeted for investment
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